The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benchmark plunged by 7.38% to reach just 1,105 points, almost half of where it stood as 2011 ended. These past few sessions have reminded ship owners just how fragile the market remains, as the pace of the fall of freight rates is equivalent of the crisis days of 2008, now 3.5 years ago. Capesizes lost a staggering 9.74 percent just yesterday and more than 20% since the start of 2012, an indicative sign of the lack of demand in the market and a flood of newbuilding deliveries.
In its latest weekly report, shipbrokers Intermodal said that a rebound in freight rates would be hard to be seen in 2012, unless Chinese growth exceeds the pundits expectations or unless another demand driver like China appear in the picture. "India may play this role as its ever increased demand to import coal to feed its power plants could absorb some tonnage and support freight rates especially for the bigger vessels. Already the state owned mining company Coal India plans to open new mines in Indonesia in order to cover future needs. Although it is not possible to find such support from one day to another, India will definitely play its catalytic role as a demand driver and supporter of the dry bulk market for the next couple of years" said Intermodal's Yannis Olziersky.
He went on to mention that "the global economic outlook for 2012 is not looking much healthier than last year and with an increased supply of new vessels hitting the water, shipowners are getting prepared for an even worse market then the one that past. The target for this year should be the same as 2011, weathering the lows.
Demand wise analysts are expecting the volume of cargoes which are transported by dry bulk carriers to show some growth; however same are expecting 2012 to be the weakest growth in demand in at least a decade, especially for shipments of iron ore. This is due to the slowing Chinese growth which is expected to drop to 8.5 percent this year compared with 9.2 percent in 2011. Analyst forecast that China is expected to import 5.8 percent more iron ore this year against the 10 percent in 2011, a quite significant difference which will logically put pressure on freight rates, bearing in mind that the industry is expected to face the biggest fleet growth in recent history. Already the rally in capesize rates which began in August is fading and the BCI has lost 40 percent since its peak in December 12th" said Mr. Olziersky.
On the demolition front, Clarkson Hellas said earlier this week that "2012 has begun very positively with news that Bangladesh is on the verge of re-opening and on the back of a stable currency and improved steel prices domestically, India increasing their price indications and Chinese breakers continuing their aggressive stance from last year. However, on paper everything looks rosy, but an air of caution is still to be adopted as currently, Bangladesh remains closed until the hearing due next Thursday 12th, and Indian rates are on the rise but only because some cash intermediaries appear to be speculating on the re‐opening of the Bangladeshi market and as such, the current improved rates seen for tonnage basis delivery India are not being justified on the waterfront at Alang. The concern for most is the tremendous amount of tonnage being proposed to the market since the turn of the year and whether the current firm rates can hold. Many parties believe that when Bangladesh officially re-opens the rates will increase substantially in excess of the USD 500/ldt level, however this is again pure speculation and if the amount of new tonnage witnessed in the market over the last few days is anything to go by, then the conveyor belt of tonnage supply may affect the breakers mentality in the near future even if Bangladesh does re-open next week as predicted" said Clarkson Hellas.
Intermodal also mentioned in its analysis that "during the first three quarters of the year, demolition activity peaked up, with many vessels heading towards the beach, setting a record at a time when the industry needed it. However the last quarter of the year, activity slowed down as prices softened and cash Buyers were reluctant to acquire more tonnage, mainly due to the extreme fluctuation of the Indian Rupee against the USD and the prevailing uncertainty on steel prices. The good news however, is that Bangladesh is finally set to ratify its regulations on the 12th January and get the green light from the Court to import vessels once again; therefore we believe that this will bring stability and safety to the market, hence scraping activity should logically pick up again, which is of course good news for the oversupplied market" concluded the Piraeus-based shipbroker. 

From: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new year, in order to proceed with new dry bulk orders. As a result, the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) fell once again on Wednesday to 1,856 points, down by 1.17% on the day, with Panamaxes erasing the previous gains and losing 2.16% on the day. The Baltic Panamax Index now stands at 1,720 points. Similarly, demand has thinned out for Capesizes, with the respective index falling by 1.09% yesterday to 3,526 points. Supramaxes were unchanged, while the demise of the smaller Handysizes wasn’t about to end yesterday.
Commenting on the Panamax market, shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report that “limited fresh business appearing in both hemispheres as Christmas is getting closer, causing the market to slide slowly. As the majority of December cargoes have been cleared out and the list of open positions is growing, expectations for the coming days and weeks are not over enthusiastic. 15k for TA, 25k for trip out, and 11k for Pacific rounds represents market levels this week. 2011 seems to end where it started, with a BPI on about 14000 and on a downward trend. Fluctuating from lowest 10372 Feb 2nd to highest 17115 March 11th the year is about to close with an average BPI also at 14000. With a descending forward curve passing 11500 for 2012 it may be highly relevant to wish all market participants a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!” said Fearnleys.
On a similar note, Piraeus-based shipbroker Shiptrade Services mentioned that in the Atlantic basin “we saw fresh cargoes in the market, and few vessels were fixed for short period, a few transatlantic round with coal via USEC, and in the Mediterranean a few round trips with grains ex Bl.Sea. At week’s end, rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 15.900 per day, while on the Fronthaul, rates concluded at USD 26.000per day, or close to USD 26.000 + 600.000 ballast bonus basis APS USG. In the Pacific basin Owners were also unwilling to drop their rates as some fresh cargoes ex NOPAC or Australia emerged into the market. Many fixtures were reported at levels of USD 10.000 – 11.500 per day basis N.China delivery for a trip via NOPAC, while rates for trip ex Australia concluded close to USD 12.000 per day” said Shiptrade.
Referring to the Capesize market, Shiptrade stated that Atlantic basin is getting quiet, but Pacific remained active. Rates in the Atlantic started to ease since there was not much of activity. Rates for trips to F.East concluded at USD 55.000 per day, while rates for Transatlantic round concluded close to USD 32.000 per day. Fronthaul market was also quiet but some fixtures concluded around USD 29.50 - 30.50pmt basis Tubarao/ Qingdao.
Pacific basin seemed to be a bit active with Iron ore majors covering about 10 vessels. At week’s end, rates for the Dampier/Qingdao trade concluded around USD12.00 pmt. On TCT basis, rates for Pacific round concluded at USD 31.500 per day basis N.China delivery.
Panamax: Market moved upwards across both basins, as Owners seemed reluctant to reduce their levels and held their position” said Shiptrade.
Meanwhile, Fearnleys mentioned that the Cape market has remained strong in the near term, but sharply dropping off for slightly forward dates. “Spot Pacific vessels have commanded high premiums with an extreme high of USD 17.20 being paid, for West Australia to China, at the end of last week for very tight dates. End December cancelling has demanded USD 14.50, while second half January is being fixed at a much lower USD 11.25. January front haul positions are very tight with few or no ballaster, and recent rumours indicate rates for
Brazil/China being paid well over USD 30.00 (perhaps even USD 32.00). The one-year period market has now been done at a new high of USD 18500. Although the curve has moved, the sentiment is still pessimistic and the forward market is discounted heavily” said the shipbroker in its report.
On the Supramax front, Shiptrade said that “rates remained steady accoss both basins. In the Atlantic basin, still USG region still is the best place to be as rates for trip to continent/East Mediterranean remained at USD mid 20’s per day, while for trips to F.East fixtures reported at USD low/mid 30’s per day. Ex Continent, rates for trips to East Mediterranean/ Bl.Sea concluded around USD 18.000 per day. On the Fronthaul trade, rates for trips ex Continent concluded at USD low/mid 20’s per day, while trips ex Bl.Sea via G.O.A concluded at USD mid 20’s per day even though there were not so many cargoes available. Pacific basin saw rates stabilising and some fixtures reported at very good rates, since both Charterers and Owners were looking to cover their vessels/cargoes prior Christmas. Positions in S.China/S.E.Asia interested for Indonesian coal to China were fixed at rates around USD 6-7.000per day. On the other hand, for the N.China positions, there were a few cargoes ex NOPAC, and one or two fixtures reported at USD 7.000per day + 400.000 ballast bonus basis APS” concluded Shiptrade.

From, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

Capesize vessels yesterday helped lift the dry bulk market which had been falling since the start of the week on lower cargo demand. As a result the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up marginally yesterday to 1,849 points. Capesizes were higher by 0.53% on the day, but apart from that, no other ship type was able to stage a recovery. This has been the case for some time now.According to the latest report from shipbroker Fearnleys, commenting on the Capesize market it said that there were "mixed signals as average spot levels for this segment improve 5% w-o-w to USD 29,600 but struggle to break the USD 30k/day-barrier. Significant Chinese congestion have put Australian miners under pressure to pay up for very prompt positions as ships delay and fall out of schedule - whilst just slightly later positions are ignored or at best valued at more than 5% less. Atlantic appears tight on prompt tonnage, with a resultant USD 31.50 pmt reported concluded for PDM/S.Korea. Paper values support increased period fixing, with relevant conclusions including 170k dwt China prompt for 4-6 months at USD 20k, 177k dwt China prompt for 12-18 months at USD 17k" said Fearnleys.
In a separate report, Shiptrade Services mentioned that "Capesize rates in the Atlantic basin increased as an effect of the improvement on the Fronthaul trips. Rates for trips to F.East concluded at USD 52.000 per day, while rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 29.500 per day. On the Tubarao/Qingdao trade rates increased at USD 28.80-29.00pmt.
In the Pacific basin, there was higher level of activity from the Atlantic with the iron ore majors fixing around 12-15 vessels, and rates for the Australia/China trade fluctuating between USD 11.30 – 12.50pmt, while some rumours saying that a few fixtures concluded close to USD 13.00 pmt. On TCT basis, rates for Pacific round also improved and concluded at USD 25.000 per day basis N.China delivery" said the Piraeus-based shipbroker.
Detailing the current state of the Panamax market, Shiptrade Services said that "the week began as previous week ended, with rates moving downwards. In the Atlantic basin there were not many fresh cargoes in the market and tonnage started building up. Many Owners preferred to fix their vessels for 2/3 laden legs at rates around USD 15.500-16.000 per day, while there were also some vessels ballasting towards USG. At week’s end, rates for trips ex USG to F.East concluded at USD 26.000+600.000 GBB basis APS USG, while on the standard Fronthaul rates concluded at USD 25.000per day. For those who preferred to remain in the Atlantic, rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 15.500per day.
In the Pacific basin there were not many Indonesian coal cargoes and the tonnage availability was getting larger day by day. Some vessels in S.China/ S.E.Asia claimed that they were holding between USD 8.000-10.000 for one trip via Indonesia with coal. On the other hand, we witnessed some fixtures reported ex N.China for a trip via Nopac at rates between USD 10 - 11.250 per day, while rumours say that another vessel was fixed USD 12.750 per day basis N.China delivery ( Calipso, 73.691/05&rsquo" said Shiptrade in its report.
Meanwhile, Fearnleys mentioned that "the Panamax market has experienced the same steady but slow decline in rates as last week. In the Atlantic we see a steady flow of new cargoes entering the market, but to the same extent a growing list of available tonnage to lift same. Tarvs are being fixed in region of USD 15k while shorter Baltic rounds are being fixed at around 16k. In the Pacific rates are sliding and Indo rounds getting fixed at very low rates and even below USD 10k. The period market has been less active this week with a huge gap
between owners and charterers, but some interest has been shown for index linked deals" said Fearnleys.
On the Supramax front, Shiptrade said that the "market in the Atlantic basin managed to remain more or less steady, but activity decreased. Still USG region pays the most with rates for trip to continent/East Mediterranean remaining at USD mid 20’s per day, while for trips to F.East fixtures reported at USD low/mid 30’s per day. Ex Continent, rates for trips to East Mediterranean/ Bl.Sea concluded at USD low 20’s per day. On the Fronthaul trade, rates for trips ex Continent concluded at USD low/mid 20’s per day, while trips ex Bl.Sea via G.O.A concluded at USD very high 20’s per day.
Pacific basin saw rates decreasing as there was not so much cargo volume to cover the tonnage supply, and soon the available cargoes covered. Positions in S.China/S.E.Asia interested for Indonesian coal to China were fixed at rates around USD 6-7.000per day. On the other hand, for the N.China positions, there were not many cargoes ex NOPAC, and many Charterers were offering something around USD 2-4.000 per day for Indonesia round, or something around USD 6-7.000 per day for trip to India" concluded Shiptrade.

from, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide