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Tanker rebound now visible in LR2 and LR1 product tanker markets
By total
Published: 2014.11.10
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The new Chinese Transportation Tax Law: What does it mean for Greek Shipping?
By total
Published: 2014.10.14
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China has recently promulgated a new law which imposes tax on profits from freights of inbound routes. The objective of the new tax law titled “Provisional Measures on the Collection of Tax on Non-Resident Taxpayers Engaged in International Transportation Business” (Bulletin of the State Administration of Taxation 2014, No. 37) is to strengthen the tax administration of foreign companies operating international transportation business with China.

What has changed?

Until recently, China had only been taxing international outbound routes with an effective tax rate of 1.25% on the gross revenue. The new rules extend the scope of the tax to inbound routes, and increase the tax rate. As of August 1st, 2014, freights of non-resident shipping companies operating in international routes towards Chinese ports are expected to pay a new tax rate (Enterprise Income Tax – EIT) of 25% on profit. The tax is levied on freights on voyage charters and time charters.

How will the new tax be collected?

Currently there are three options for collection, however further clarification is expected:

1. Tax registration in China: Non-resident shipping companies will have to register with Chinese tax authorities and comply with local bookkeeping and tax rules. The tax at the rate of 25% will be levied on the declared net profit, or

2. Tax on deemed profit: where the enterprises are unable to calculate and report taxable income accurately, they can register and pay tax on a deemed profit. The profit rate cannot be less than 15% and the tax rate will be 25%. Therefore, for a freight of $100, it will be deemed that there is a $15 profit, for which a 25% tax will be due (therefore an effective tax rate of 3.75%), or

3. Have tax withheld by an agent: instead of registering with the Chinese authorities, a company can pay the tax at the rate of 25% on the assumed 15% profit, by having the tax withheld by the customer or other persons designated by the local tax authorities as withholding agents.

How does this impact Greek shipping?

The Double Taxation Agreement and the Merchandise Franchise Agreement , which Greece and China have in place, protect Greek shipping companies or non-Greek shipping companies that are managed by Greek management offices by exempting them from any tax on freight transportation income in Chinese ports.

It is important to note that the exemption is not automatic; once the Chinese authorities finalize the filing requirements, close attention shall need to be paid to the completion of necessary documentation in order to secure the exemption.
Additionally, the Greek Government is in the process of setting up further safeguards by amending laws related to tax residency certificates in order to ensure that the Greek shipping companies will be exempted from this new levy.

In this case, the impact of the new law could only be compliance requirements and not actual tax costs. However, it is still unclear if the DTT and the MFA mentioned above and the submission of the necessary tax residency certificate will have the power to secure shipping companies exemption from this tax law. Deloitte is following closely any development and will keep its clients informed on any news.

Deloitte’s global shipping leader, George Cambanis, commented, “Provided the proposed amendments to the current Greek law enable management offices to obtain the tax residency certificates which would then exempt Greek shipping companies from this new Chinese tax law the only downside to Greek shipping would be the administrative cost of compliance.”
Source:  Hellenic Shipping News


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China’s energy reforms could signal new support signs for the tanker market
By total
Published: 2014.09.04
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What does project cargo really mean to insurers?
By total
Published: 2014.08.13
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Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from an insurer’s point of view.

Project cargo is the large, oversized, overweight heavy lift cargo or critical pieces of equipment that may be high value or time sensitive and sometimes both. Project cargo insurance covers against loss or damage in transit for critical components of large civil, production facility, infrastructure, and/or construction projects.

Considerations

In addition, there are considerations to be taken into account for Delay in Start up (DSU) and Advanced Loss of Profits (ALOP) against loss of income and profit arising from late or non-delivery of critical components due to an accidental occurrence in transit.

Failure of a shipment to arrive, or not arrive intact, can turn a USD10 million cargo loss into a claim ten times its value when factoring in the knock-on effects of one piece of equipment not being ready at a particular date, which then causes disastrous consequences to the project as a whole. Whilst failure of any cargo to arrive has an enormous impact on operations, for project cargo this has far reaching ramifications.

For this reason the assured look towards insurers to cover the additional economic cost when something goes wrong.
Evaluating risk

Insurers will only compensate the assured for the loss or put it back in the same position. So how does an underwriter even start to evaluate the risk when the consequences are not easily apparent? Project cargo is specifically dependent on transport logistics and tight timeframes, so missing any goal or target will have serious knock-on effects.

To begin a proper assessment of the exposure, a few crucial factors need to be considered. The time and costs for re-fabrication as well as for reshipping the item need to be calculated, which is not an easy task when the bespoke nature of these items is considered.

During this time, insurers will need to calculate the knock-on effects when other goals or targets cannot be met. This means they need to evaluate the loss of profit and/or other operational costs at each stage affected until the project is completed. This is by no means guesswork and there is a complex system involved in calculating each risk.

Appraising the exposure is only part of the problem to insurers because one must consider how to move such an item. Project cargo will most likely be out-of-gauge or exceed regular weight limits, so the question is how the transport is to be done. Moving pylons across muddy roads in India during monsoon season, or loading reactors onto vessels, need the highest level of expertise. The services of engineers, surveyors, mariners, naval architects, consultants and government officials will be required. Careful consideration is essential in deciding who to employ.

Relevant experience

A major factor is to ensure the right people with the relevant experience are chosen. A team of international experts may need to be flown out at each stage of the transit. A key role is an individual who will be in charge of coordinating all communications amongst the team, ensuring all members are properly informed whilst avoiding any misunderstanding whatsoever.

Once the determined route has been scrutinised, the next stage is to ensure all requirements are met. Inland transits often require special authorization or conditions and vessels might need special clearance from their P&I clubs or insurers.

Insurers are very reliant on the assured and other experts to advise on stowage and on whether an item is capable of withstanding the rigours of transit. Items that protrude or carry extreme weights present a huge problem while stationary, but these complications are magnified tenfold when combined with extreme forces of rolling and pitching while in transit.

Calculations need to be carried out by professionals, securing contractors to ensure correct fastenings, buttresses, and so on, are used. Stability during the voyage is essential, so great care is taken to ensure the centre of gravity is evenly distributed.

All the advice from the experts is only as good as Mother Nature permits. A final weather routing will often need to be agreed before the shipment can commence.

No matter how fastidious insurers, carriers, freight forwarders and shippers are, there is a chance that an accident will happen. Claims will of course arise when route surveys are not properly carried out of when stowage of fittings are not adequate.

There will always be unforeseen events that cannot be predicted. The role of the insurer is not to take a gamble on whether a shipment will arrive in time and good order, but to know the risks and eliminate the uncertainties. For project cargo this is critically important, given the high cargo values and the potentially enormous claims involved.
Source: FP Marine


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Supramax and Panamax markets to suffer going forward on the back of heavy ordering activity
By total
Published: 2014.07.17
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Ship values still high, but trend is downward; Newbuilding orders increased by 60% during January-May period
By total
Published: 2014.06.30
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Ship values have remained on a high note over the past month, albeit the overall trend seems to be shifting downwards, as freight rates have remained on negative territory. Still, interest in modern tonnage is always high, especially when compared with the past couple of years.

According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Golden Destiny, “the instability of freight rates during the second half of the year seems do not influence investment movements of shipping players as there is still an optimistic approach for the performance of dry bulk segment despite the downward pressure of Balitc Dry Index below the psychological barrier of 1,000 points”.

The shipbroker noted that “June seems that follow the downward incline of previous month for tanker and dry bulker freight environment, while there are some signs of revival with skepticism in the container segment. However, asset prices for secondhand vessels keep on the high side with a downward trend after the negative incline of freight rates”, Golden Destiny noted. According to the assessments from Baltic Exchange, secondhand market values for bulkers and tankers kept the increasing levels of previous month with a flat sentiment:

Bulkers – S&P assessments for 5yrs old vessels:
• Capesize (172,000 dwt): $49,18mil end May 2014 (from $40,7mil end Dec 2013)
• Panamax (74,000 dwt): $26,9mil end May 2014 (from $23,9mil end Dec 2013)
• Supramax (52,000 dwt): $25,2mil end May 2014 (from $23,7mil end Dec 2013)

Tankers – S&P assessments for 5yrs old vessels:
• VLCC (305,000 dwt): $73,06mil end May 2014 (from $58,8mil end Dec 2013)
• Aframax (105,000 dwt): $37,4mil end May 2014 (from $28,9mil end Dec 2013)
• MR (45,000 dwt): $26,5mil end May 2014 (from $28,2mil end Dec 2013)

As a result, “shipping players keep going with strong investments in the secondhand and newbuilding market, but with a lower appetite for newbuilding orders following record levels of activity in the previous months. Overall, S&P activity in the secondhand market for May 2014 ended with a soft upward trend from the levels seen last month and even higher than the levels of 2012. Scrapping activity appears to follow a steady pace of volume with an average of 16 vessel disposals reported per week during the year. In the first five months of 2014, the average number of weekly reported S&P transactions is 33vessels, up by 27% year-on-year compared with 26 vessel purchases in the first four months of 2013 and up by 57% from 2012 levels (21 vessel purchases). However, the downward trend of freight rates has downsized investors’ appetite from the end of the first quarter of 2014. During March 2014, the average number of secondhand vessel purchases per week was estimated to be 37 vessels compared with 29 vessel purchases during May 2014″, said Golden Destiny.

It also noted that “compared with the investments in the secondhand market, in terms of number of vessels, the ordering appetite for the construction of new vessels has now decreased to 94% from 97% in April, as shipping players is not unlikely to follow a lower investment strategy for newbuilding vessels during the second half of the year.
During the first five months of 2014, the average number of weekly reported new orders was 64, up by 60% year-on-year (40 new orders on average reported per week in January-May 2013) and up by 167% from 2012 levels. (24 new orders on average reported per week in January-May 2012)”, said Golden Destiny.

DEMOLITION

Meanwhile, “in the demolition market, the scrapping appetite of shipping players is now showing lower levels than last year as it has decline to 16 vessel disposals per week, on average, from 19 in 2013 and 2012. It remains to be seen how shipping players will react during the second half of the year if the downward pressure in dry bulk and tanker freight rates persist and scrap rates rebound at firm levels upon the end of monsoon season. During January-May 2014, the average number of weekly reported demolitions represents 16% year-on-year decline with 16 vessels reported on average per week in 2014 compared with 19 vessels disposals per week in 2013 and 19 vessel disposals in 2012″, Golden Destiny concluded. Following is a summary of the main monthly trends:

Secondhand Vessel Purchases: (up 20% month-on-month and no change year-on-year) – 112 vessels for an invested capital of more than $1,8 bn, 3 S&P deals reported at an undisclosed sale price. (May 2013: 112 vessel purchases)
Newbuilding Orders: (down 41% month-on-month and 19% down year-on-year) – 187 vessels for an invested capital of more than $11,2bn, 67 new orders reported at undisclosed contact price. (May 2013: 230 new orders)

Demolition: (up 7% month-on-month and 1% up year-on-year) -77 vessels for disposal of about 3,1mil dwt, 10% year-on-year increase in the number of bulker disposals. (May 2013:76 vessel disposals)
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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Dry bulk market keeps on falling, despite respite of the Capesize sector
By total
Published: 2014.06.13
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Dry bulk market's recovery is just around the corner says shipowner
By total
Published: 2014.05.31
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Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward.

According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.

The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year.

In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards.

From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean. 


In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth.

This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model.

In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace.

With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure.

Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted. Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk.

But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum.

Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted. 

In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014.

China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics.

The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013.

Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations.

In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery.

On the back of this EU increased its steel production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013. 

The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter.

China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year.

Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent.

Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014 against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted. 

From: Hellenic Shipping News


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VLCCF - Second Quarter 2012 and Six Months Results
By total
Published: 2012.08.16
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HIGHLIGHTS Knightsbridge reports a net loss of $3.3 million and a loss per share of $0.13 for the second quarter of 2012. The net loss of $3.3 million includes a loss of $5.1 million resulting from the termination of the Golden Zhejiang time charter and loss provisions for unpaid charter hire of $5.6 million. Knightsbridge reports EBITDA of $3.8 million and EBITDA per share of $0.16 for the second quarter of 2012. Knightsbridge announces a cash dividend of $0.175 per share for the second quarter of 2012.
Knightsbridge reports net income of $3.9 million and earnings per share of $0.16 for the six months ended June 30, 2012.
The charter parties for the Golden Zhejiang and the Battersea have been terminated by the charterers and Knightsbridge will seek recovery of damages for the remaining periods of the charters
The VLCC Hampstead was re-delivered from its time charter to Frontline Ltd.
In August, the VLCC Hampstead has been sold with expected delivery in August 2012 and the Company expects to record a loss of approximately $13 million in the third quarter. The net cash proceeds from the sale are approximately $10 million.
SECOND QUARTER 2012 AND SIX MONTHS RESULTS 
Knightsbridge Tankers Limited (the "Company" or "Knightsbridge") reports a net loss of $3.3 million and a loss per share of $0.13 for the second quarter compared to net income of $7.1 million and earnings per share of $0.29 for the first quarter of 2012. The net loss for the quarter includes a loss of $5.1 million following the unexpected termination of the Golden Zhejiang time charter. This loss reduces operating revenues and comprises a $1.9 million loss resulting from the write off of the unamortized value of the time charter (it should be noted that the Company allocated $3.3 million of the purchase price for the Golden Zhejiang to the value of the time charter, which was acquired with the vessel, and was amortizing this amount on a straight line basis over the period of the time charter) and a $3.2 million loss resulting from the write off of accrued income being the difference between the revenue being recorded and the cash received following the charter party amendment in 2011. The net loss for the quarter also includes loss provisions for unpaid charter hire of $5.6 million.
The average daily time charter equivalents ("TCEs") earned by the Company's VLCCs, excluding bareboat charters, and Capesize vessels in the second quarter were $20,100 and $9,100, respectively, compared with $23,400 and $35,600 in the preceding quarter. The fall in the TCE rate for the Capesize vessels is mainly due to the write offs and loss provisions described above. In August 2012, the Company has an average cash breakeven rate for its VLCCs, excluding bareboat charters, and Capesize vessels of $14,000 and $8,500, respectively, per vessel per day. The VLCCs which are on bareboat contract have a cash break even rate of $4,400 per vessel per day.
Cash and cash equivalents increased by $2.5 million in the quarter. The Company generated cash from operating activities of $11.9 million, used $0.9 million to repay loan facilities and paid $8.5 million in dividends.
For the six months ended June 30, 2012 the Company reports net income of $3.9 million and earnings per share of $0.16. The net income for the first six months of 2012 is after a loss provision for unpaid charter hire of $7.3 million. The average daily TCEs for the Company's VLCCs, excluding bareboat charters, and Capesize vessels for the six months ended June 30, 2012 were $21,800 and $22,300 respectively.
THE TANKER MARKET
The market rate for a VLCC trading on a standard TD3 voyage between the Arabian Gulf and Japan in the second quarter of 2012 was WS 55, representing a decrease of approximately WS 1 point from the first quarter of 2012 and a decrease of approximately WS 3 points from the second quarter of 2011. Present market indications are approximately negative $3,000/day in the third quarter of 2012.
Bunkers at Fujairah averaged $662/mt in the second quarter of 2012 compared to $730/mt in the first quarter of 2012. Bunker prices varied between a low of $663/mt on June 22 and a high of $739/mt at the beginning of the quarter.
The International Energy Agency's ("IEA") July 2012 report stated call-on OPEC oil production, including Iran and Iraq, of 31.8 million barrels per day (mb/d). Angola and Iran posted the largest declines and offset near-record production of 10.2 mb/d from Saudi Arabia. This was an increase of 380,000 barrels per day compared to the first quarter of 2012.
The IEA estimates that world oil demand averaged 88.8 mb/d in the second quarter of 2012, which is a decrease of 600,000 barrels compared to previous quarter and the IEA estimates that world oil demand will average approximately 89.9 mb/d in 2012, representing an increase of 0.9 percent or 0.60 mb/d from 2011. 2013 demand is expected to be 90.0 mb/d with non-OECD demand exceeding OECD demand for the first time, a trend that is unlikely to be reversed.
The VLCC fleet totalled 610 vessels at the end of the second quarter of 2012, up from 598 vessels at the end of the previous quarter. 12 VLCCs were delivered during the quarter, none removed.
The orderbook counted 99 vessels at the end of the second quarter, down from 111 orders from the previous quarter. The current order book represents approximately 16 percent of the VLCC fleet. According to Fearnleys, the single hull fleet currently stands unchanged at 23 vessels.
THE DRY BULK MARKET
The global economy experienced a weaker than expected development during the second quarter of 2012. Growth in the U.S. came in at 1.5 percent, almost one percent lower than was expected by analysts. The development in Europe is still a major concern, which in turn is hitting the Asian and American export markets. The Chinese growth of 7.6 percent is lower than what we have been used to in the past. Lower industrial production has a negative effect both on steel production and energy consumption, which have been the driving forces for the dry bulk sector since the beginning of this millennium. However, it is important to note that the Chinese Government is proactive and with inflation coming down, we might see further stimulus packages when the new leadership is in place.
In spite of the bleak growth prospects described above, the total dry bulk trade is still growing at a steady pace. Based on available data, total dry bulk trade grew by 4.4 percent during second quarter this year compared to the previous quarter and was 5.2 percent higher than the same quarter last year. It is interesting to note that Chinese coal imports experienced a strong growth last quarter compared to the same quarter last year (up 70 percent) and total coal imports to China could reach 240 million metric tons in 2012. Iron ore imports to China was slightly lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but approximately10 percent higher than the same quarter in 2011.
The growth in dry bulk trade is not sufficient to keep the utilization at levels yielding decent returns. Delivery of new vessels into the market has outpaced demand growth for some time, but the high influx of newbuildings will slow down considerably in the next 18 months.
The total order book of 154.1 million dwt. represents approximately 23 percent of the existing dry bulk fleet. The accuracy of the official order book has been questioned for some time and most forecasters are expecting a delivery ratio of 75 percent going forward.
Preliminary data for July indicate a slower pace of newbuilding deliveries. This comes after a bad month from owners' perspective. It appears, however, that we are through the worst as the number of vessels older than 20 years is expected to be in line with the order book within one year, which should cater for a more balanced supply situation.
Forecasters are still fairly optimistic when it comes to long term demand growth. This is backed by increased energy consumption in India and China and higher iron ore imports to China.
Short term utilization is expected to remain low, but consensus among analysts is that utilization will slowly turn in favor of owners by the end of next year. If owners remain disciplined and are careful not to order too many new vessels over the next twelve months, the supply side looks quite appealing from 2014. Lack of available financing might also support this scenario.
There is some short term upside if international commodity prices (coal and iron ore) continue to drop as it might lead to higher Chinese imports.
THE FLEET
The VLCC Hampstead was re-delivered on April 22 from its time charter to Frontline Ltd. and commenced trading in the spot market. In August, the vessel was sold to an unrelated third party. Delivery to the new owner is expected to be in August 2012 and the Company expects to record a loss of approximately $13 million in the third quarter. The net cash proceeds from the sale are approximately $10 million.
The Company announced on July 30, 2012, that one of its charterers, Hong Xiang Shipping Holding (Hong Kong) Co Limited ("Hong Xiang"), has redelivered the 176,000 dwt Capesize dry bulk carrier Golden Zhejiang before final maturity of the charter. After the redelivery the vessel has been employed in the spot market. The Golden Zhejiang was on charter at a rate of $32,326 per day net, for a minimum period ending on September 7, 2014 and included a two year extension option in Knightsbridge's favor. The redelivery follows a period when Hong Xiang has not paid charter hire for the vessel when due. The Company has a guarantee from Hong Xiang's parent company, Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group Co. Ltd.. The Company has a claim for outstanding unpaid hire from Hong Xiang and, in addition, will seek recovery of damages for the remaining period of the charter contract.
The Company also announced on July 30, 2012, that the Sanko Steamship Co., Ltd. ("Sanko") has served a notice purporting to cancel its charter party with the Company and has redelivered the Capesize dry bulk vessel Battersea to the Company prior to the expiration of the minimum period of the charter. The Battersea was on charter to Sanko at a rate of $39,500 per day net, for a minimum period ending on June 26, 2014. The Company has a claim for outstanding unpaid hire from Sanko and, will in addition, seek recovery of damages for the remaining period of the charter contract. The vessel has been employed in the spot market following the redelivery.
CORPORATE AND OUTLOOK
Two of the Company's VLCCs and two of the Capesize vessels are fixed on bareboat and time charters expiring between 2012 and 2015. We expect the VLCC Titan Venus (ex Camden) to be redelivered during the fourth quarter of 2012 and the Capesize vessel Golden Future during the first quarter of 2013.
The sale of the VLCC Hampstead is a part of the Company's intention to renew and grow the fleet and may assist the Company in reacting to interesting acquisition opportunities.
Following the termination of the time charters for the Capesize vessels, the Board has decided to declare a dividend of $0.175 per share. The record date for the dividend is August 30, 2012, the ex dividend date is August 28, 2012 and the dividend will be paid on or around September 12, 2012.
24,437,000 ordinary shares were outstanding as of June 30, 2012, and the weighted average number of shares outstanding for the quarter was 24,429,549.
The Company advises that its 2012 Annual General Meeting will be held on September 21, 2012.


Source: Knightsbridge Tankers Limited



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Active dry bulk fleet increases by 8% so far in 2012 in terms of tonnage capacity
By total
Published: 2012.08.13
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It’s no wonder that the dry bulk market has been tethering since the start of the year. the overflow of tonnage has been so enormous, that even China in its best of years, wouldn’t be able to keep up with the current supply dynamics. In fact, analysts have mentioned that it would take for a couple of more “Chinas” nowadays, in order for demand to catch up with the current fleet of dry bulk carriers. As of the start of the year, the global outstanding orderbook for dry bulk vessels stood at 2,375 ships, with a potential carrying capacity of approximately 200 million dwt tons. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Intermodal, out of the alarmingly large total of these orders, 1,677 ships of 139 million dwt were scheduled to be delivered during 2012. Under this scenario approximately 70% of the bulker orderbook was scheduled to be delivered during 2012.


With 7 months already gone by and as of 1st of Aug 2012, it is interesting to see the progress. According to Intermodal’s John Cotzias, “the active bulker fleet stands at 8,477 ships and 645mil tons of carrying capacity. During 2012 the active bulker fleet has grown by 6% in ships and 8% in total dwt. VLOC’s in 2012 have grown by 17%, Capesize 4%, Post Panamax 14%, Panamax 6%, Supramax 12%, Handymax reduced by -5% while Handysize increased by only 2%.


At the same time, Newbuilding bulker deliveries are holding strong with around 4 new ships being delivered every day (809 ships of 70mil tons dwt)!! It is worth noting that slippage (expected deliveries less actual deliveries ) was calculated at abt. 15% for the 1st Half of 2012 while it is accelerating after June, giving us a present figure of around 17%. There were 1,677 ships deliveries originally scheduled for 2012, so we could assume that if the current trend continued, there would be 1,390 ships delivered in 2012. However as the slippage rate increases and traditionally as we move towards Nov-Dec more ships are belated to take advantage of a later year of built, so we may expect that the total dry bulker deliveries for 2012 will reach a record high number of around 1,250 ships and abt. 108mil tons of extra dwt carrying capacity. Slippage therefore is estimated to reach around 23-25% for the current year” he said.


According to Intermodal, “looking into deliveries of specific bulker size segments in 2012, we have recorded 49 VLOC’s, 91 Capes, 73 Post Panamax, 168 Panamax, 226 Supramax, 13 Handymax and 189 Handysize being delivered. In 2013 the world bulker fleet will have a capacity of about 750mil tons and this is a reality that we all have to face…!” the report stated.


According to Mr. Cotzias, “there is just too much supply of tonnage that will only push further the gap between available ships for trading and available cargoes. Fleet growth for 2012 is estimated at 20%, and this increase can never be matched by seaborne dry cargo growth which may run at a mere 4-6% given best world economic conditions. 
Scrapping has aided the bulker sector tremendously, as more than 21mil tons of dwt, abt 340 ships have been removed from the active fleet, this gives us around 1.6 dry bulker ships scrapped per day! Average age of the ships scrapped is now coming down to 21 years. Offered scrap prices looked rather attractive during first half of 2012 and that further assisted most owners in deciding to send more vessels to the breakers rather than seek buyers for further trading. According to our estimates abt. 500 ships of 30-31mil tons of dwt will be taken for demo during 2012 and this is approximately 6% of the active fleet. Let’s keep this scrapping going!” he concluded. 


From, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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